Dollar forecast for the end of April. Forecasts for the dollar, euro and ruble for April. Forecast of the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar
Dollar forecast for April 2017. Last news, analysts' opinions
What is the forecast for the dollar exchange rate in Russia for April 2017? What currency is best to invest in in the spring of 2017? Is it worth storing? cash in foreign currency? In this article we will examine these and other questions.
What factors will affect the dollar exchange rate in April?
Given the growing instability in the oil market in 2017, most analysts and experts are inclined to believe that in the spring of 2017 dollar to ruble exchange rate will strengthen. According to the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, the price of oil has already reached its peak, and in the near future a new wave of decline in oil prices to around $40 per barrel is likely. The Bank of Russia fears that increased shale oil production in the United States could have an impact Negative influence on oil prices in the coming months.
It should also be taken into account that the Central Bank continues the downward cycle interest rate: in March, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rate was lowered by 25 bp. The regulator explained the decision by stabilizing the economic situation. If the cycle of rate cuts continues in the coming months, selling pressure on the ruble will increase. According to forecasts, at the meeting on April 25, the rate may be lowered by another 25 bp.
In addition, the currency interventions of the Ministry of Finance will exert psychological pressure on the ruble in April. Let us remind you that on February 7, after a two-year pause, the Ministry of Finance again began purchasing foreign currency in order to replenish reserves. Thus, the mark of 55 rubles per dollar turned into psychological support for the market.
Another factor that may affect the dollar exchange rate in April may be rising expectations Fed interest rate hikes in the near future. American economy continues to recover at a steady pace, so the market is pricing in the dollar high probability interest rate increase at the meeting on June 14, 2017. Let us remind you that in March the rate was already increased by 25 bp.
Dollar exchange rate: forecast for April 2017
Experts do not expect a large-scale devaluation of the ruble in April 2017, but there is a risk of further weakening of the exchange rate. From the point of view of technical analysis, a breakdown of 57 in March “erased” the support area - a sharp short-term fall in the pair is possible USD/RUB in April, but most experts still do not see any reasons for the long-term growth of the ruble.
According to the forecast, the dollar exchange rate in April will return to the range of 60-65 rubles after testing the 55 ruble mark.
According to analysts at the Swiss bank UBS, there is no point in expecting a strong weakening of the ruble in 2017. The bank claims that doing business in Russia is becoming more and more comfortable, despite the sanctions. Prospects will become even more favorable in the event of a rapprochement between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
“We were cautious after the very first sanctions, but now that we know how they work we can be more open,” says Hendrik Geldunhus, head of the department for central and eastern Europe. “If the new American administration takes steps to normalize relations with Russia, we will only be happy. However, it’s too early to talk about this.”
Let us recall that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election provoked the growth of almost all asset classes, and also stimulated activity in the placement of bonds and shares in the Russian market. UBS actively participated in them, placing franc-denominated bonds of Gazprom in November, and dollar bonds of Rusal in January. In addition, the bank participated in the sale of shares in an Italian oil refinery owned by Rosneft.
UBS does not take into account the easing of anti-Russian sanctions in its business plan for 2017, but notes that such an event would be the “icing on the cake”, complementing the rise in oil prices and the exit of the Russian economy from recession. The bank notes that more and more Russians are turning to them for advice on asset management, and the main problem is to convince them to “get out of the cash”.
So, what's next for the US currency? According to forecasts for April 2017, we should not expect a final stabilization of the USD. What factors influence the exchange rate according to analysts?
- Oil prices
- Trading balance
- Geopolitical factors
- Investment climate
This list remains stable at all times and for all countries. However, the ratio of the degree of influence varies markedly. For Russia it has always been of great importance " This is understandable - the share of the raw materials sector in the country's economy is still very significant. And oil prices are falling again amid rising commercial reserves in the United States.
As analysts predict, in April the dollar USD will fluctuate between 58-59 rubles without sharp rises and falls. Therefore, experts advise not to rush into selling.
Currency in 2017
In general, this year, according to analysts’ forecasts, Russians should not expect shocks. The foreign exchange market will behave calmly and predictably. Even despite all the political squabbles: elections in Europe, unexpected decisions of Donald Trump as president, etc. Experts predict that oil will rise slightly in the third quarter of 2017 and stabilize in the fourth. This will have a positive impact .
What are the final forecasts for exchange rates? There will be no changes in the EUR/RUB pair. will trade within 62-64 “wooden”. The dollar-ruble ratio, according to analysts, will be slightly more fluid. For example, the head of Sberbank German Gref announced possible fluctuations in the corridor from 57 to 61 RUB.
Experts predict that also, most likely, will avoid falls against the Russian currency.
Currently, everyone is concerned about the change in the dollar exchange rate. Nobody knows what can be expected in the future and what influences the change in course. The price of the dollar mainly depends on the cost of oil. How does it affect quotes?
How oil can affect the dollar in 2017
Since two thousand and fourteen, the price of oil began to decline. At that time it cost $98 per barrel, but now it costs $48. A similar phenomenon with oil occurred in two thousand and five. It turns out that the events of ten years ago are returning. A hundred years of history with changes suggests that similar events have already occurred seven times.
Dollars differ from rubles in that they are used throughout the world. You can use them to pay for groceries in any country. This monetary unit cannot depend on oil. The economic situation in the country is influenced by production.
All countries located in the European Union use the European monetary unit Euro. If the oil product becomes cheaper, it will not affect this currency in any way. If prices go down, the EU will benefit.
What is the reason for the fall in oil prices
At first, oil was quite expensive and so its value dropped sharply. Oil today is extracted with improved technologies, so it has become abundant. In addition, the current economic situation was influenced by the Chinese economy. Economic growth in China began to decline, and the country began to consume less oil. Thus, there was a decrease in demand for petroleum products. IN Lately America is overproducing shale oil in Saudi Arabia.
Now it’s hard to imagine that oil will rise in price to eighty dollars. A miracle will happen if its cost reaches sixty rubles.
How much budget income Russia will receive from exports depends on oil. The formation of export revenues is influenced by the sale of petroleum products. How much income the budget will receive depends on the price of oil.
The situation with a decrease in oil prices began in two thousand and fourteen, and has continued since then. The ruble also began to rise in price due to economic sanctions imposed by Europe and America on the Russian Federation.
Events began to develop at high speed. Will Russia be able to cope with it? Will the ship Russia not go to the bottom from such a huge wave? Of course it will be difficult, but
Russia will overcome everything, and the people will survive
Many predictions have already been made about what the dollar will be in April 2017, but all of them may not make sense if the government takes any action before then. In addition, much depends on Europe imposing sanctions on Russia.
The European currency once depended on the price of oil, but now it does not depend on it. The regulator does not limit the movement of the exchange rate, and the Central Bank does not intervene.
When the currency began to grow strongly in its value, the Central Bank continued to purchase foreign currency. Maybe by summer new local maximums in the currency will be reached.
Because of such instability economic situation in Russia, many Russians are panicking. After all, the internal and external situation of the market affects the subconscious of every person. The economy can be viewed by the main indicator of the dollar exchange rate. Nowadays, many experts are forecasting prices for next years. Although the results are still debatable.
This is the most important topic among Russians today. There is nothing strange here, because not so long ago the national currency had a stable position and recently there have been sharp changes.
When the dollar appreciated strongly at the beginning of last year, devaluation was on everyone's mind, and a general exchange of money began to obtain a stable currency. Then the dollar exchange rate fell again, and then rose again. Now people no longer know what to think and cannot draw any conclusions.
Today the dollar already has an equilibrium value. Subsequent ruble dynamics will be equal to external conditions. This may lead to the need to carry out devaluation in two thousand and sixteen. The Russian currency is strongly influenced by external factors. First of all, America affects, then China, with its economic decline. According to analysts, the ruble is weakening due to the fact that Russians have begun to receive little income.
It's hard to envy Russia's economy today. Citizens are restless, because prices for various products and services change and most often not in better side for consumers. One of the pressing issues for the population is the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017. We will look at the month of April separately and find out what picture will be drawn in the state during this period.
Opinion of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development
At the moment, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble remains more or less stable. The head of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development reassures the residents of the state, promising that no sharp fluctuations or collapse of the national currency are expected. But back in 2014, the situation in this area saddened many. The results of the past period forced financiers to make certain conclusions, decisions, and fortunately this will not happen again.
But it is worth noting that the ruble will remain freely floating. Considering the currency in the long term, it seems that the volatility (volatility) of the ruble exchange rate will still decrease.
On the RBC channel last fall, information appeared that the Ministry of Finance included in the draft three-year budget a dollar exchange rate of 67.5 to 71 rubles. This means there is reason to think about it.
Factors influencing the exchange rate
The monetary unit of Russia today depends on multiple external factors, namely:
- China's economic decline.
- Low price of “black gold”.
- Recent changes in the US reserve system and the decisions of the new president.
Perhaps the ruble will strengthen after the Fed increases the rate. Financial analysts claim that the phenomenon of devaluation of the national currency is largely caused by a reduction in the capital of Russian citizens. For example, last year it was the commotion and panic among people that became one of the reasons for the destabilization of the market.
Expert forecasts for April 2017
Now let’s look at the “prophecies” of the country’s leading experts for the second month of spring – April.
